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You Can't Project The Future By Looking Backwards



Good morning Income Investors!


A common theme I notice when talking to people about the market, reading commentary, or listening to the talking heads on TV, is that they will frequently talk about newly reported data as if it accurately describes what is happening today.


The reality is that all economic data is dated by the time we look at it. How old the data is will vary depending on the collection method, and we need to take that into account when it comes out.


In the near future, the market will likely remain lackadaisical about recession risk because of the recent strength in GDP and jobless numbers. As a result, we can expect the market to generally react favorably to economic news that promotes the idea that the Fed will cut rates. News such as declining inflation, higher unemployment, and slowing wage growth, are all items that aren't good for the economy long-term, but could be interpreted as a positive for the market.


In our free version of our Market Outlook, I discuss the wide valuation difference between large-cap and small to mid-cap stocks, and what this means for investors as the next recession approaches.

 

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